2020, Volume 9
2019, Volume 8
2018, Volume 7
2017, Volume 6
2016, Volume 5
2015, Volume 4
2014, Volume 3
2013, Volume 2
2012, Volume 1

Volume 3, Issue 4, August 2014, Page: 125-129
Modelling the Migratory Population Dynamics of the Serengeti Ecosystem
Janeth James Ngana, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology (NM-AIST), Arusha, Tanzania
Livingstone Serwadda Luboobi, Department of Mathematics, Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda
Dmitry Kuznetsov, Nelson Mandela African Institution of Science and Technology (NM-AIST), Arusha, Tanzania
Received: Jul. 7, 2014;       Accepted: Jul. 15, 2014;       Published: Jul. 30, 2014
DOI: 10.11648/j.acm.20140304.13      View  3209      Downloads  183
Many ecological studies have tried to explain the animal migrations, but none has embarked on modeling the Great Migration and its impact on the migratory animals’ population dynamics, in combination with food and the impact of predation. In this paper, we present a mathematical model of the four dynamic Ordinary Differential Equations of Grass, Herbivores, Lions and Crocodiles. Using secondary data covering ten years 1996-2006 we estimated the parameters in the model. The grass forage grew periodically, the herbivores population grew, the predation rate of lions grew and so did its population. But the crocodiles’ population grew less. The study has shown that there was no extinction and migration continued. Herbivores population grew provided that there was enough food.
Great Migration, Grass, Herbivores, Lions, Crocodiles, Predation, Prey, Serengeti, Masai Mara
To cite this article
Janeth James Ngana, Livingstone Serwadda Luboobi, Dmitry Kuznetsov, Modelling the Migratory Population Dynamics of the Serengeti Ecosystem, Applied and Computational Mathematics. Vol. 3, No. 4, 2014, pp. 125-129. doi: 10.11648/j.acm.20140304.13
Fryxell, J. M., Greever, J., and Sinclair, A. R. E. (1988). Causes and consequences of migration in large herbivores. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 3: 237-241.
Holdo, R. M., Holt, R. D., Sinclair, A. R., Godley, B. J., & Thirgood, S. (2011). Migration impacts on communities and ecosystems: empirical evidence and theoretical insights. Animal Migration: A Synthesis, 131-143.
Holdo, R. M., Holt, R. D., and Fryxell, J.M. (2009). Opposing rainfall and pant nutritional grsdients best explain the wildebeest migration in the Serengeti. The American Naturalist, 173 (4), 431-445.
Maddock, L., Sinclair, A. R. E and Norton-Griffiths, M. (1979). The Migration and Grazzing succession in Serengeti: Dynamics of an Ecosystem. 104-29. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Mduma S.A.R, Sinclair A.R.E. AND Hiborn, R. (1999). Food regulates the Serengeti Wildbeest: a 40-year record. Journal of Animal Ecology, 68, 1101-1122
Musiega, D. E., and Kazadi, S.N. (2004). Simulating the East African Wildebeest Migration Patterns using GIS and remote sensing. African Journal of Ecology, 42 (4), 355-362.
Pennycuick, C.J. (1975). On the running of gnu (Connochaetes taurinus) and other animals. Journal of Experimental Biology. 63, p.775-799.
Stratton, D. (2010). Wildebeest in Serengeti: limits to exponential growth. University of Chicago Press.
Sinclair, A. R. E, Arcese, P. (1995). Serengeti II: Dynamics, management and conservation of an ecosystem. University of Chicago Press, Chicago.
Wilmhurst, J. F. Fryxell, J. M., Fram, B.P., Sinclair, A. R. E., Henschel, C. P. (1999). Spatial Distribution of Serengeti Wildebeest in relation to Resources. Can. J. Zool.77, 1223-1232.
Wolanski, E. & Gereta, E. (2001) .The water quality and quantity as the factors driving the Serengeti ecosystems, Tanzania. Hydrobiologia 458, 169–180.
Browse journals by subject